Lagos to Lose Land via Sea in 2100, Says Don

jchima

The projected sea level rise in the coastal areas of Lagos State could be more than 1 metre by 2100, resulting in ample loss of land to the sea.

This dire forecast was presented by Dr. Iyiola Oni, of the Department of Geography, University of Lagos, in his paper ‘Emerging Research and Trends on Ocean Surge in the Developing Countries: Case of Eti-Osa Area of Lagos’.

Dr. Oni’s presentation was made at the 1st annual public lecture, organised by Eti-Osa Heritage Organisation, an indigenous organisation in Eti-Osa Local government of Lagos state. The public lecture theme was, ‘Climate Change, Ocean surge and Sustainable Development in Nigeria’.

According to the Don, recent studies suggested that the expected climate change in Lagos state may include: temperature increase of 0.04 degrees Celsius per year from now until the 2046-2065 period, with areas near the coast expected to warm up at a slower rate than elsewhere.

Oni said, “Besides, a wetter climate, with the annual rainfall increasing by about 15cm and a rainy season that will be longer by up to two weeks by 2046-2065, an increase in the frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events, such as extreme heat days (with the temperature exceeding 38 degrees Celsius), with more violent tropical storms are expected.”

He said, “Sea level will rise by about 3.1mm per year as a result of increasing global temperatures, and the concomitant thermal expansion of water and melting of polar ice caps.”

The impacts of climate change, he said were being felt in every sector of Lagos State, including agriculture and food security; water resources; wetlands and freshwater ecosystems; coastal zone and marine eco-systems; land use, forestry and biodiversity; energy; transportation; industry and commerce; financial services; human settlements and health; and disaster management.

He said these impacts included loss of land to the sea; loss of livelihoods; loss of physical infrastructure (transportation, industrial, energy, water storage/supply; real estate, etc.); displacement of settlements and population; Loss of ecosystems and biodiversity; pollution of surface water and groundwater; increased frequency and magnitude of climate-related disasters; and Increased risk of water-borne diseases.

To avert the looming disaster, he recommended the construction of dykes for protection; relocation of homes or businesses, or demarcation of certain zones as off-limits for development; institution of stronger building codes, or strengthening of early warning systems.

He also suggested the development of a long-term physical plan for the coastal zone, using the principle of integrated coastal zone management and developing a long-term plan for the relocation of settlements, transportation and energy infrastructure within the context of the Lagos Megacity project.

In another presentation, an environmentalist, Desmond Majekodunmi, in his paper ‘Climate Change, Ocean Surge and Sustainable Development in Nigeria’, said there were no major natural disasters in the country until the massive flood of 2012.

He said the were no early warning signals regardless of the fact that the meteorological department had warned about a possibility of severe flooding brought about by an unusually high volume of rain falling over a short period of time. “The alarm bells should have started ringing then, because this scenario is one of the classic symptoms of climate change.” Another symptom of climate change, he said was ocean rise caused by melting of the polar ice caps and expansion of the ocean waters through thermal induction. Another symptom is more virulent offshore storms giving rise to hurricane force winds. All these symptoms have started to manifest themselves in different parts of the world and are providing the practical positive proof of the horrific realities of climate change, brought about by anthropogenic induced global warming, caused mainly through the unabated release of greenhouse gasses, particularly CO2 and methane, into the atmosphere.

He said, “Unfortunately for us here in Nigeria and particularly in the coastal states like our dear Lagos, when the symptoms of heavy volume of rain, ocean rise and virulent storms occur simultaneously it can spell disaster for a low lying coastal area, especially when the lagoons in that area are also the final destination for a series of major river systems.”

He said, “As a matter of utmost urgency, whilst the whole world comes to terms with the absolute necessity to drastically cut back on carbon and methane emissions, we in Nigeria need to be a leading voice in Africa for protecting the environment as we regenerate our forests, protect our low lying shorelines by developing groins and sea walls; stopping beach sand mining and sea shell removal and also evacuating shipwrecks and controlling dredging, and make a fundamental decision to stop being part of the problem that is mortgaging the future of our children and becoming part of the solution to providing them and generations unborn with a sustainable livelihood,”.

Chairman of the occasion, Mr. AbiodunTobun, who is also Chairman, House Committee on Environment, Lagos State House of Assembly, lauded the physical development in Lagos, particularly in Eti-Osa axis, but noted that such developments were threatened by ocean surge.

Tobun said sand mining in that axis was causing serious depletion on the shoreline, adding that the physical development that is concentrated in Eti-Osa, Lekki and Epe allows cutting of trees, thus, subjecting the area to the vagaries of climate change.

“Indiscriminate cutting of trees, either to create space for site development, or using them for other purposes has resulted in a situation whereby the oxygen needed is being affected. (Thisday)